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November 20, 2005
FOREX Trading Strategies
To be a successful FOREX trader you need a trading strategy. There is no one set strategy that is good for all traders; rather, each trader needs to develop his or her individual approach to the FOREX. Some traders rely solely on technical analysis while others prefer fundamental analysis, but many successful FOREX traders use a combination of both to get a broad overview of the market and for plotting entry and exit points.
Technical analysis relies on one key concept: Prices move by trends. The common saying in FOREX is 'The trend is your friend.' Market movements have identifiable patterns that have been studied over many years and a thorough understanding of these trends and how they can be read forms the basis of a good trading strategy.
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There are many analytical tools available to understand market movements. The beginner FOREX trader is well advised to study each one separately for getting a working knowledge of their concepts and application. Once one has been understood, keep on using it while studying others. Each tool tends to reinforce the others.
Support and resistance levels are used in many FOREX trading strategies. 'Support' refers to the price level that is repeatedly seen as the bottom – when the price reaches this level it tends to rise. Resistance levels are upper prices that the currency rarely trades beyond. Support and resistance levels contain price movements for a period of time.
When currency prices break through support or resistance levels, the prices are expected to continue in that direction. For example, if the price rises above the previous resistance level, it is seen as bullish – the price should continue to rise.
To find support and resistance levels, price charts need to be analyzed for unbroken support and resistance levels. Charts can be analyzed in any time frame; however longer time frames establish more important support/resistance levels. Traders can use support/resistance levels to determine when to enter or exit a transaction.
Moving averages are another common tool in FOREX trading strategies. The simple moving average (SMA) shows the average price in a given period of time over a specified period of time. Moving averages serve to eliminate short term price fluctuations giving a clearer picture of price movements. FOREX traders can plot a SMA to determine when prices have a tendency to rise or fall. If prices cross above the SMA they have a tendency to keep on rising. Conversely, prices below the SMA have a tendency to continue their downward motion.
These are two examples of trading strategies that can be used individually or in combination. In practice, the FOREX trader should have a repertoire of trading tools to examine market conditions and to support the findings of one study or another. If several indicators show that the market is moving in a particular direction the trader can act with more assurance than when relying on a single indicator.
Similarly, fundamental analysis can be used to reinforce technical findings, or vice versa. Ideally, the FOREX trader will take several indicators into account when plotting a trading strategy.
Every trading strategy should provide clear guidelines about when to enter a trade, what to expect in terms of market movement, when to exit a trade, and how much loss can be accepted in case the deal moves against the trader. Following these simple guidelines and learning about technical analysis can help you become a successful FOREX trader.
Posted by Forex at 12:28 AM | Comments (0)
November 16, 2005
FOREX Trading Systems Software
Almost every online FOREX broker has a software package for their clients to make transactions and get information about market prices. Due to the relative maturity of online trading there is a consensus among FOREX brokers about what clients need in terms of software tools. There are two main classes of FOREX software – web based and client based.
All FOREX software needs to provide up-to-the-second market information. The fast moving pace of the FOREX demands real-time data delivery for making decisions about when to enter and exit the market. FOREX dealers claim their software performs well with a minimum of delay, but in fact there can be a number of factors that could delay data transmission.
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Internet connection speed and distance from the broker's servers are the two main factors that can slow down data transmission. FOREX traders should have a reasonably modern computer and a high speed Internet connection to take full advantage of the FOREX software offered by their broker. It may also pay to choose a broker in the same area as you live. Traders in Bangkok who deal with brokers in Ohio may experience delays – especially during volatile market conditions.
Web Based or Client Based?
Web based software is on the broker's website – you don't have to install any software on your computer. Client based software requires you to download and install the software package used by your broker. Which is better? More and more brokers are offering web based client software for reasons of convenience, safety and reliability. Web based software allows you to log on to your account from any computer – you can make trades from any location that has an Internet connection. Client based software, on the other hand, restricts you to making trades from just one computer.
Besides the convenience, web based software offers greater security. Data is secured with high-strength encryption making it impossible for outside parties to access during transmission. Client based software is also secured during transmission but there are more possibilities for data loss from the trader's computer. Viruses and hackers may be able to access valuable financial data stored in a home or office computer.
Features
FOREX software needs to access real-time quotes and offer a means to enter and exit the market. Even the most basic packages offer these functions. Current quotes can be seen for most currency pairs and the software allows you to buy or sell at market prices or enter and exit the market using stops or limits. Ideally, trading software should have integrated charting functions with a variety of viewing functions.
Basic software packages should be offered free of charge, but many brokers also have more advanced packages available for a monthly fee. Some of the features you could expect to see in advanced software include the ability to trade directly from the chart and full analytical functions.
Technology
The backbone of FOREX software is a series of data servers that allow you to connect to your broker's web site and make transactions. Servers operated by the FOREX broker need to be reliable and secure for maintaining data integrity and assuring accurate transaction processing. Servers are subject to power outages and natural disasters, so to ensure maximum uptime, the broker should operate at least two sets of servers in separate locations. Brokers should also offer regular data backups to guarantee the integrity of their customer's financial data in case of server failure.
Posted by Forex at 09:29 PM | Comments (0)
November 14, 2005
FOREX Signals
One of the disadvantages of FOREX trading is the time investment needed to monitor the markets for advantageous entry and exit points. It's possible to sit in front of a computer monitor for hours watching the markets.
Of course, you can use automated orders such as limits and stops. These allow you to walk away from your computer with the knowledge that your losses will be kept to a minimum, but by doing so, you may miss out on potential profits because your limit order kicks in too soon.
If you don't have the time to watch your computer monitor and still wish to achieve as much profit as possible, consider signing up for a FOREX signal service. These services monitor and analyze the market for you and send their findings directly to your computer desktop, email, or SMS on your cell phone or pager.
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Companies that offer FOREX signals do so on a paid basis, so you have to sign up and pay a monthly or yearly fee. Some brokers may offer this service as an extra which integrates into their trading software. You can receive signals as a popup on your screen or by any of the other methods described above.
There are usually a limited number of currency pairs that are available for FOREX signals. Most services offer signals on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, but specialized services may offer other currency pairs.
FOREX signals are primarily based on technical analysis of market conditions. Most companies use a combination of indicators to identify main trends and entry and exit points. The results are sent to subscribers who have the option of acting on them or passing. Some services will even execute the trade for you.
Using a variety of technical studies, various types of signals can be derived from currency charts. The SMA (Simple Moving Average) indicates buy signals when currency prices rise above the average line. Sell signals occur when the price falls below the moving average line.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) studies have a signal line that is used to generate a buy signal (above the line) or a sell signal (below the line).
Volume indicators are used to determine market interest. High volume (especially near the bottom of the market) can indicate the start of a new trend while low volume indicates investor uncertainty.
Bollinger Bands indicate potential changes in the market. Sharp price changes tend to occur when the bands tighten while prices that touch one band tend to go all the way to the other band.
Other indicators like volatility and momentum can be used to reinforce signals provided by other sources. Taken together they form a relatively reliable source of information about how the market is behaving.
Are signals a sure thing? Of course not, otherwise we would all be millionaires. Signals can give you good advice about which currencies to trade, but no signal service will guarantee their information is 100% accurate. Reputable services will show you their track record, however, and let you see for yourself how they have done in the past.
FOREX signals cost anywhere from $50 to $200 a month. It's up to the individual trader to decide if the cost is worth it. Don't think that signals can take the place of trader education – they are advice, and if you don't have the knowledge to analyze the advice, you should go back to the books before using a signal service.
Posted by Forex at 11:25 PM | Comments (0)
November 08, 2005
Risks of FOREX Trading
Despite the claims you may see on some FOREX web sites, FOREX is not risk-free. You are trading with substantial sums of money and there is always a possibility that trades will go against you. There are several trading tools, however, that can minimize your risk, and with caution, and above all education, the FOREX trader can learn how to trade profitably and while minimizing losses.
Scams
FOREX scams were fairly common a few years ago...
FOREX scams were fairly common a few years ago. The industry has cleaned up considerably since then, but you still need to exercise caution when signing up with a FOREX broker. Do some background checking – reputable FOREX brokers will be associated with large financial institutions like banks or insurance companies and they will be registered with the proper government agencies. In the United States brokers should be registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). You can also check with your local Consumer Protection Bureau and the Better Business Bureau.
Risks
Assuming you are dealing with a reputable broker, there are still risks to FOREX trading. Transactions are subject to unexpected rate changes, volatile markets and political events.
Exchange Rate Risk – refers to the fluctuations in currency prices over a trading period. Prices can fall rapidly resulting in substantial losses unless stop loss orders are used when trading FOREX. Stop loss orders specify that the open position should be closed if currency prices pass a predetermined level. Stop loss orders can be used in conjunction with limit orders to automate FOREX trading – limit orders specify an open position should be closed at a specified profit target.
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Interest Rate Risk – can result from discrepancies between the interest rates in the two countries represented by the currency pair in a FOREX quote. This discrepancy can result in variations from the expected profit or loss of a particular FOREX transaction.
Credit Risk – is the possibility that one party in a FOREX transaction may not honor their debt when the deal is closed. This may happen when a bank or financial institution declares insolvency. Credit risk is minimized by dealing on regulated exchanges which require members to be monitored for credit worthiness.
Country Risk – is associated with governments that may become involved in foreign exchange markets by limiting the flow of currency. There is more country risk associated with 'exotic' currencies than with major currencies that allow the free trading of their currency.
Limiting Risk
FOREX trading can be risky, but there are ways to limit risk and financial exposure. Every FOREX trader should have a trading strategy – knowing when to enter and exit the market and what kind of movements to expect. Developing strategies requires education - the key to limiting FOREX risk. At all times follow the basic rule: Do not place money in the FOREX that you cannot afford to lose.
Every FOREX trader needs to know at least the basics about technical analysis and how to read financial charts. He should study chart movements and indicators and understand how charts are interpreted. There is a vast amount of information on FOREX trading available both on the Internet and in print. If you want to be successful at FOREX, know what you are doing.
Even the most knowledgeable traders, however, can't predict with absolute certainty how the market will behave. For this reason, every FOREX transaction should take advantage of available tools designed to minimize loss. Stop-loss orders are the most common ways of minimizing risk when placing an entry order. A stop-loss order contains instructions to exit your position if the currency price reaches a certain point. If you take a long position (expecting the price to rise) you would place a stop loss order below current market price. If you take a short position (expecting the price to fall) you would place a stop loss order above current market price.
As an example, if you take a short position on USD/CDN it means you expect the US dollar to fall against the Canadian dollar. The quote is USD/CDN 1.2138/43 - you can sell US$1 for 1.2138 CDN dollars or sell 1.2143 CDN dollars for US$1.
You place an order like this:
Sell USD: 1 standard lot USD/CDN @ 1.2138 = $121,380 CDN
Pip Value: 1 pip = $10
Stop-Loss: 1.2148
Margin: $1,000 (1%)
You are selling US$100,000 and buying CDN$121,380. Your stop loss order will be executed if the dollar goes above 1.2148, in which case you will lose $100.
However, USD/CDN falls to 1.2118/23. You can now sell $1 US for 1.2118 CDN or sell 1.2123 CDN for $1 US.
Because you entered the transaction by selling US dollars (buying short), you must now buy back US dollars and sell CDN dollars to realize your profit. You buy back US$100,000 at the current USD/CDN rate of 1.2123 for a cost of 121,223 CDN. Since you originally sold them for CDN$121,380 you made a profit of $157 Canadian dollars or US$129.51 (157 divided by the current exchange rate of 1.2123).
Posted by Forex at 12:45 AM | Comments (0)
November 05, 2005
How to Read FOREX Quotes
Currency prices are determined by a number of factors, the most important of which are economic and political conditions in the issuing country. Political stability, inflation, and interest rates are all factored into the price of any currency. In addition, governments can try to control the price of their currency by either flooding the market (to lower the price) or buying extensively (to raise the price).
Because of the immense volume of FOREX, however, it is impossible for one force to control the market for any length of time. Market forces will prevail in the long run, making FOREX one of the most open and fair investment opportunities available.
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Each world currency is given a three letter code which is used in FOREX quotes. The most common currencies are USD (US dollars), EUR (European euros), GBP (United Kingdom pounds), AUD (Australian dollars), JPY (Japanese yen), CHF (Swiss francs) and CAD (Canadian dollars).
Prices of foreign exchange are indicated by FOREX quotes in pairs of currencies. The first currency is the 'base' and the second is the 'quote' currency. In this example:
USD/EUR = 0.8419
...the currency pair is US dollars and European euros. The base currency (USD) is always at '1' and the quote currency shows how much it costs to buy one unit of the base currency. In this example, 1 US dollar costs 0.8419 euros.
Conversely...
EUR/USD = 1.1882
...tells us that it costs 1.1882 US dollars to buy 1 euro.
When the price of the quote currency goes up it indicates that the base currency is becoming stronger – one unit of the base currency will buy more of the quote currency. If the quote currency falls, however, the base currency is becoming weaker.
FOREX quotes are seen in 'bid' and 'ask' prices. Bid is the price that buyers will pay for the base currency (while selling the quote currency), and ask is the price that sellers will sell the base currency (while buying the quote currency).
Symbol Bid Ask
USD/CAD 1.2392 1.2397
This chart tells us that we can buy one American dollar for 1.2397 Canadian dollars, or sell one American dollar for 1.2392 Canadian dollars. The most commonly traded currencies pairs are the 'Majors' – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD.
We often see exchange rates listed in cross currency charts that list many different currencies and their values against each other. An example of such a chart is seen here:
US $ Ca $ Euro UK £
US $ 1.00000 1.24060 0.83935 0.56870
Ca $ 0.80606 1.00000 0.67657 0.45841
Euro 1.19140 1.47805 1.00000 0.67755
UK £ 1.75840 2.18147 1.47591 1.00000
In this chart, the currencies listed down the left side of the chart are the base currencies and the currencies at the top are the quote currencies. We can convert the chart above into currency pairs by following the row beside the base currency. Using US dollars as the base currency we get the following currency pairs:
USD/CAD = 1.24060
USD/EUR = 0.83935
USD/GBP = 0.56870
...which tells us that one US dollar is equal to the corresponding value of the quote currency. To find the opposite pair e.g. CAD/USD follow the Canadian dollar row to the US dollar column - CAD/USD = 0.80606 (one Canadian dollar is worth 0.80606 US dollars).
There is no standard for cross-currency charts – some have the base currency on the top and some have it on the side. How to tell which is which? You need to know at least one pair of currencies and which one of the pair is more valuable.
Posted by Forex at 10:09 PM | Comments (0)
